Maize Crop Steady in Spite of Disrupted World Market

Maize Crop Steady in Spite of Disrupted World Market

Maize plantings got off to a slow start in Europe, because of low temperatures (even below 0°C) in early April. However, they started accelerating at the end of April. As mentioned earlier, the Ukraine-Russian conflict has disrupted the markets. Prices started to surge in late February 2022 and the trend has been doubled by soaring input costs (especially in terms of fertilisers and energy) and even input shortages (fertiliser). The current price/production cost situation could trigger an increase in sunflower areas. Moreover, while the European Commision has approved the resumption of cultivation on lands declared as set aside in 2022 (about 4 million hectares in all, in the EU), the measure should have a limited impact on the current plantings, because of the high production costs. Overall, we estimate a slight drop in both the grain, and feed, maize areas in the EU, which should be down about 1 percent to a final 15 million hectares. Grain maize areas are also expected to drop in France, Italy, Spain, Hungary, and Bulgaria. On the other hand, they are expected up in Germany and Poland. As to feed maize, a significant reduction is expected in Germany (Europe’s first producer), which has a good available supply after the 2021 harvest and also faces pressure from the methane industry. Feed maize should also trend slightly downwards in France. Outside the EU, a sharp area drop is expected in Ukraine (between 30 and 40 percent). On the contrary, grain maize areas are expected to rise slightly in Russia. In Serbia, graine maize should drop, as a result of a drought-stricken crop in 2021. Lastly, in Turkey, producers should plant less grain maize and take to growing cotton, despite this winter’s overall satisfactory rainfalls in the main production regions. However, feed maize should continue to grow in this country, in parallel with its livestock industry.

Seed Production: Adjusting to the Context and Supplying the Markets

Despite the disruption caused by the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, seed companies and their partners farmer  have drawn up their planting intentions for 2023. With 85000 hectares, the production plan remains unchanged and at a high level in France – Europe’s leading maize producer and the world’s leading maize seed exporter. On the other hand, production plans are expected down in Romania (-12 percent) and Hungary (-17 percent), bringing the total EU area to nearly 175000 hectares (-7 percent). Outside the EU, maize seed multiplication areas should drop by about 30 percent in Ukraine, increase slightly in Russia, and remain relatively stable in Turkey and Serbia.

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